Introduction
If you’re managing a warehouse or distribution center, you already know the reality: finding and keeping good people has never been harder. At Ahearn & Soper, we’ve spent over 140 years helping operations run more efficiently, and lately our conversations with clients keep circling back to the same challenge, turnover is climbing, the talent pool is shrinking and hiring conditions across North America remain frustratingly uneven.
The numbers tell the story. Recent industry surveys show an average turnover rate of 11.6% across warehouse and distribution operations, with many facilities losing experienced workers to better compensation, limited advancement opportunities, or simply the appeal of new challenges elsewhere. Meanwhile, 36% of companies added personnel over the past year, yet 32% instituted hiring freezes and 21% reported layoffs, a split that highlights just how inconsistent the labor market remains.
For warehouse operators, this creates a difficult planning environment. You might be competing fiercely for workers in one region while neighboring markets see modest stabilization. Warehouse workers nationwide average $18-20 per hour, rising to $25 in expensive markets, with forecasts pointing to 3-4% annual wage growth continuing through 2026. But competitive pay alone won’t solve the problem.
What we’re seeing from our vantage point as a technology provider is this: the operations that are succeeding aren’t just offering higher wages; they’re fundamentally rethinking how work gets done. They’re asking harder questions about where automation makes sense, how to make warehouse work more appealing, and what it takes to keep people engaged once they’re in the door.
The uneven hiring conditions that defined 2025 will continue into 2026. But there’s also opportunity here, particularly for operations willing to invest in both their people and their systems.
Creating a Path for New Employees
Here’s what we hear from warehouse managers: you can hire someone on Monday, spend two weeks training them, and by Friday of week three they’ve found something better. The first 90 days have become the critical window, and traditional onboarding isn’t cutting it anymore.
The challenge isn’t just retention, it’s that the nature of warehouse work itself is changing rapidly. More than 90% of warehouses now use some form of AI or advanced automation, and more than half of logistics leaders report they’ve actually grown their warehouse workforce since implementing AI tools. This might seem counterintuitive, but automation isn’t eliminating jobs, it’s transforming them.
What this means for new employees is that they need to come in with different expectations. The purely manual labor roles are declining, while demand surges for people who can operate warehouse management systems, troubleshoot automated equipment, maintain robotics, and manage hybrid workflows. Your new hire isn’t just picking orders anymore, they’re working alongside autonomous mobile robots, using voice-picking systems, and interpreting real-time inventory data.
Creating a viable career path starts with acknowledging this shift. New employees need to understand from day one that learning to work with technology isn’t optional, it’s central to their future in the industry. But that also creates opportunity. Supply chain professionals are optimistic about their careers, with more than 80% reporting solid job satisfaction, though about 16% changed jobs in 2024, often for better pay or broader responsibilities.
Here’s where automation technology becomes a retention tool, not just an efficiency play. When you implement barcode scanning systems, WMS software, or automated material handling equipment, you’re not just streamlining operations, you’re creating roles that are less physically punishing, more technically interesting, and frankly, more marketable for your employees’ future careers.
The operations we work with that have the lowest turnover tend to share a few characteristics. They cross-train people across multiple systems. They create advancement criteria that are transparent and skills based. They invest in certification programs for equipment operation. And critically, they give new hires early exposure to technology so people can see a future that goes beyond repetitive manual tasks.
One more thing we’ve noticed: facilities that involve workers in automation implementation have better adoption rates and lower turnover. When your team understands that new technology isn’t coming for their jobs but rather to make their jobs better, you get buy-in instead of resistance.
Economic Signals and Shifting Demands
The economic picture heading into 2026 is complicated, and it’s showing up in warehouse hiring patterns. E-commerce continues driving demand for fulfillment capacity, nearshoring is bringing manufacturing closer to home, and cold chain logistics is expanding rapidly. But these growth areas exist alongside softening demand in other sectors and ongoing economic uncertainty.
By 2026, roughly 69% of supply chains serving US customers are predicted to be based in the Americas, up from 59% two years earlier, with Mexico’s share of operations jumping to 36%, overtaking Canada. This reshoring trend is creating warehousing booms in border states and new distribution hubs across the continent. For hiring managers, it means competing for talent in markets that may not have deep warehouse labor pools.
Meanwhile, automation adoption continues accelerating. 85% of supply chain professionals expect to adopt AI technologies over the next five years, with the global automated storage and retrieval system market growing from approximately $10 billion in 2025 to $15 billion by 2030. The warehouse automation market overall is projected to grow from $21.84 billion in 2025 to $71.25 billion by 2033, a compound annual growth rate approaching 16%.
For warehouse operators, these numbers represent both pressure and opportunity. The pressure comes from knowing your competitors are investing in automation to address the same labor challenges you face. The opportunity comes from understanding that automation implementation doesn’t happen overnight, it requires thoughtful planning, system integration, and most importantly, people who can manage the technology.
What we’re seeing in 2026 is a bifurcation in hiring needs. On one hand, there’s continued demand for traditional warehouse roles, receiving, picking, packing, shipping. These jobs aren’t disappearing, but the skillsets are evolving. Workers need to be comfortable with handheld scanners, mobile devices, and digital interfaces. On the other hand, there’s exploding demand for technical roles: robotics technicians, automation specialists, WMS administrators, and data analysts who can interpret warehouse performance metrics.
The skills gap is real. As Gen Z individuals enter the workplace, warehouses are becoming melting pots of multiple generations, with growing emphasis on sustainable practices increasing demand for talent with expertise in environmental compliance. Younger workers expect modern technology and clear environmental commitments. They’re less willing to accept outdated systems or purely manual workflows.
Here’s where companies like Ahearn & Soper fit into the picture. When operations invest in modern WMS platforms, automated identification systems, or material handling automation, they’re not just buying equipment, they’re making their facilities more attractive to the workforce they need to hire. We’ve seen it repeatedly: facilities with up-to-date technology have an easier time recruiting and retaining staff.
The flexibility conversation is also worth mentioning. To meet employee expectations, managers must blend full-time, part-time, and temporary staff while scaling warehouse staff up or down depending on customer demand. This means your systems need to be intuitive enough that seasonal workers can be productive quickly. It also means your permanent staff needs to be skilled enough to train others and manage fluctuating workflows.
Looking ahead to 2026, successful warehouse operations will be those that treat technology investments and workforce development as interconnected strategies. You can’t solve the hiring crisis with pay raises alone. You can’t solve it with automation alone, either. But when you combine modern systems with clear career pathways, cross-training programs, and work environments that respect both the physical demands and the intellectual capabilities of your team, you create operations where people want to work and stay.
The labor market will remain challenging through 2026. Turnover will continue to pressure margins. The competition for qualified candidates won’t ease up. But for operations willing to invest strategically in both their technology infrastructure and their people, there’s a path through this. We’ve been helping warehouse operations solve complex challenges since 1881, and this latest challenge—finding and keeping great people, is solvable. It just requires thinking differently about what warehouse work can and should look like.
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